The 30-year fixed mortgage hit 6.75% last week — the highest level since July 2025. Three months ago, that same rate was sitting at 6.09%.
That’s a 66 basis point move in under 90 days. On a $400,000 loan, it’s roughly $175 more per month, or about $63,000 more in interest over 30 years.
If you’ve been on the fence, this is the kind of move that actually changes the math.
What Happened
A few things, stacked on top of each other:
The U.S. entered conflict with Iran. Oil prices climbed. That pushed inflation expectations back up, and the bond market reacted — when 10-year Treasury yields rise, mortgage rates follow.
At the same time, the Fed held rates steady at its April meeting. That was the third consecutive pause. And the vote was contentious: 8-4, the most divided FOMC decision since 1992. Powell’s term ends mid-May, a new Chair is coming, and the market doesn’t love uncertainty.
Put it all together, and mortgages went the wrong direction.
What It Means Locally
Two things are true at once in Lake and McHenry County right now:
Inventory is still tight. January data showed Lake County single-family inventory down 26% year-over-year. Lake County’s median sale price was up 12.1% in February. Well-priced homes in good school districts are still moving fast.
But higher rates change buyer behavior. Some pull back. Some lower their price ceiling. Some keep looking but get more selective. The buyers who were stretching at 6.1% are not stretching at 6.75%.
For sellers, this is the part to pay attention to: the buyer pool didn’t disappear, but it tightened. Pricing right on day one matters more this month than it did three months ago. The homes that sit are usually the ones that started too high and chased the market down.
For buyers, the calculus hasn’t actually changed much. If you’re financially ready and you find the right home, buy it. Rates may ease later this year — most economists still expect that — and you can refinance. What you can’t do is go back in time and buy the house that already sold.
The Honest Read
This isn’t a crash signal. This is a market reacting to geopolitics and a Fed in transition. Rates could ease quickly if the Iran conflict resolves. They could also stay elevated through summer if oil stays high.
What I’d tell anyone asking right now: don’t make a 10-year decision based on a 10-week rate move. Make the decision based on whether the house works, the price works, and the payment works at today’s rate. If all three check out, the rest sorts itself out.
If you want to know what your home is worth in this market, or what a specific budget actually buys you in Libertyville, Mundelein, Gurnee, or anywhere in between, reach out.
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